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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often complicate day-night matches, when data suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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