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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.